Iran war spills over into South Caucasus as Tehran’s drones strike Nakhichevan

Two Iranian suicide drones struck Azerbaijan’s Nakhichevan exclave on Thursday, Baku’s foreign ministry reported, marking the first spillover of the ongoing U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran into the South Caucasus.

According to Azerbaijani authorities, one drone hit the terminal of Nakhchivan International Airport outside the exclave’s capital, while the second struck the ground next to a nearby school. Two people were reported injured. Several videos of the strikes were posted online by local residents.

It remains unclear whether the drones reached their intended targets or were taken down by Azerbaijani air defense systems before impact.

“We demand that Iran provide a clear explanation on this matter as soon as possible, conduct a proper investigation and take the necessary urgent measures to prevent such attacks in the future. The Azerbaijani side reserves the right to take appropriate retaliatory measures,” the Azerbaijani foreign ministry said in a statement.

“The attacks will not be left without a response,” the country’s defense ministry said in a separate statement later in the day. 

No comments were immediately available from Iranian authorities at the time of publication.

Direct military retaliation from Azerbaijan appears unlikely at this stage, Eduard Arakelyan, a military analyst at the Yerevan-based Regional Center for Democracy and Security, told CivilNet.

“Most likely, this will initially be followed by strong diplomatic protests, the strengthening of air defenses and coordination with partners. Baku will wait for Turkey’s reaction and coordinate its further actions with Turkey. Nakhichevan is closely linked to Turkish military and transport infrastructure,” he said.

Iran’s potential targets could have included Azerbaijani reconnaissance and suicide drones deployed at Nakhichevan airport, or a logistics and reconnaissance hub potentially used for military transport and monitoring Iran, Arakelyan told CivilNet.

Just a day earlier, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev visited the Iranian embassy in Baku to offer condolences over the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Saturday.

In recent days, media reports suggested Azerbaijan has moved troops toward its border with Iran, recalled members of its military command from leave, and placed forces on combat readiness.

No Armenian officials have commented on the developments so far. Nakhchivan, the capital of the exclave of the same name, lies about 130 kilometers (80 miles) from Yerevan.

“For Armenia, what has happened means possible increased pressure on logistics, rising tensions along its borders, and the risk that hostilities or strikes could begin occurring near its borders or affect the region as a whole,” Arakelyan concluded.