During a press conference on March 18, 2013 President Serzh Sargsyan announced that a government that could not ensure 7% economic growth and progressive wage increase higher than the rate of inflation by the end of its term (2013-2017 for the present government), then that government must resign.
Last year the government was not able to ensure the President’s requests. Preliminary forecasts suggest that economic growth will be around 3.5%; at the end of 2013, inflation was 5.6%, while the average salary increased only by 4.8%.
Nonetheless, the National Statistical Service of Armenia (NSS) came to the government’s rescue. At the end of January, the NSS published a press release, titled “The December, 2014 Current-Operative Preliminary Main Macroeconomic Indicators (by the standards of January 24, 2014) that Depict the Social-Economic Situation of the Republic of Armenia,” according to which statisticians have adjusted the average salary indicator for the year 2013. This means that with last year’s 5.6% inflation, the average salary has increased by not by 4.8 % but by 6.5%.
The National Statistical Service adjusted salaries based on the average monthly salary indicator by also including the 2012-2013 data on the salary of military personnel. This data, according to the NSS, “became available at the end of 2013.” In its press release the NSS notes, “The average salary indicators that were previously presented did not include data on the salary of military personnel. However, this data is presented to ensure annual summaries and comparability, which is one of the main requisites of the UN’s fundamental principles on official statistics.”
The NSS’s justification for excluding the salaries of military personnel from the average salary indicator in previous years is rather vague. It is not clear why this data on military wages became available only at the end of last year. The National Statistical Service’s justification is questionable because when planning military expenses in the budget the number of military personnel and the amount of their salary is taken into consideration. In any case, changing the end-of-year calculation method and finding the need to adjust salary indicators throughout the whole year in one month is not well founded. Even if up till now the salary of military personnel was not included in the average salary calculation formula and the NSS made this change “for more precision,” then what is stopping them from making that change again starting January, 2014?
It is important to note that this isn’t the first time the NSS has helped the government ensure anticipated indicators. In 2012, thanks to the NSS, economic growth was registered at 7.2%. Statisticians adjusted (decreased) the GDP for 2011, which resulted in quite a small index deflator for 2012.