By Mane Berikyan
Over the weekend, a failed military insurgency led by the aggrieved leader of a powerful Russian paramilitary group emerged as the biggest threat to the Kremlin’s state power that Russia has seen in decades, throwing the country into a short-lived chaos and its aftermath.
As tensions boiled over domestically, the ever-present backdrop of a full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine raised questions about Russia’s war effort and President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power.
Although a direct military confrontation on Russian soil has been curtailed for now, what unfolded in Russia over the course of 36 hours bears serious implications on the country and the surrounding region.
What happened?
Starting on Friday morning, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder and leader of a private army of Russian mercenaries known as Wagner, released the first in a series of social media posts directly challenging the Russian military and Defense Ministry.
In an angry tirade, Prigozhin said the “evil” of Russia’s military leadership “must be stopped” and announced a “march for justice” against the Russian military that he, along with 25,000 of his mercenaries, would embark on. For the first time, he also said that Russia’s justification for its war in Ukraine is a lie. Prigozhin has been accusing for months that Russia’s Defense Ministry and military are mismanaging the war effort in Ukraine and failing to supply his mercenaries, who have been fighting alongside the Russian military.
Most significantly, he accused Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of ordering deadly airstrikes against his men and released a video showing the site of the alleged attack, which the Kremlin denied. In response, Russia’s Federal Security Service opened a criminal investigation against Prigozhin for armed rebellion and ordered his arrest.
By Saturday, Prigozhin and the Wagner group would have taken control of the Southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don overnight and would be quickly advancing toward Moscow. Although the Kremlin deployed some defense measures, Wagner forces seemed to be met with little resistance along the way and even shot down several Russian military aircrafts.
As Wagner mercenaries made their way deep into Russia and toward the capital city, Putin made a televised address promising to crush Prigozhin’s “armed mutiny” and punish all traitors, accusing his former ally of treason.
A surprise from Belarus
On Saturday evening, unexpected news emerged from Belarus, Russia’s closest ally.
Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko, it seemed, had negotiated an agreement with Prigozhin to halt his advance in order to “stop bloodshed” from taking place in Russia. The Russian military had already been mobilizing a defense, digging anti-tank ditches on federal highways and deploying infantry combat vehicles on the streets of Moscow, amid fears that civil war was imminent.
Soon thereafter, Prigozhin sent out a Telegram message announcing that his forces would retreat back to their training camps, after having made it within 125 miles of Moscow.
In return, Russia’s criminal case against Prigozhin would be dropped and he would leave Russia for Belarus. Additionally, Wagner fighters who had participated in the armed rebellion would not face any actions, and those who had not would be offered Russian military contracts.
The Wagner chief’s insurgency was cut short, with Prigozhin last seen leaving Rostov alongside Wagner forces. His whereabouts now are unknown, although a popular Russian news channel on Telegram reported he was seen at a hotel in Minsk, capital of Belarus, on Monday.
On Monday, Prigozhin sent out another audio statement, this time defending his insurrection and saying he had acted in response to the deadly attack against a Wagner camp that he alleged Russia had ordered. In the statement, Prigozhin goes on to taunt the Russian military, calling his march a “master class” on how the invasion of Ukraine should have been carried out and mocking the military for failing to prevent Wagner from marching 500 miles into Russian territory.
He revealed no information about his whereabouts or plans for the future, leaving more questions unanswered.
According to Russian media reports on Monday citing unidentified sources, Russia’s criminal investigation against Prigozhin remains open and active, despite the deal to offer Prigozhin amnesty when he left for Belarus.
The world reacts
On both the diplomatic and domestic fronts, responses rang to the failed mutiny in Russia.
The near-military confrontation between Wagner and Russia’s military invited much global attention, especially from the West, which maintains strong support for Ukraine against Russia’s invasion.
Moreover, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Prigozhin’s rebellion showed “real cracks” in Putin’s authority and was a “direct challenge” to his power. The United States was reportedly aware of Prigozhin’s plans, but chose to withhold the information from the public in the days leading up to the rebellion.
Moving closer to the region, in addition to Lukashenko, Putin also held phone calls with Uzbek President Shakvat Mirziyoyev and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on Saturday to inform them of the situation in Russia. The latter reportedly told Putin the events were a “domestic affair.”
Later that day, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan also held a phone call with Putin, emphasizing that “although the events unfolding in Russia are an internal affair,” he would like to receive information about the situation in the “friendly country.”
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that “Russia’s weakness is obvious,” with his presidential adviser Mikhailo Podalyak adding that the Wagner group had “humiliated” the Kremlin.
Domestically, Russia was plunged into chaos and back out. As defenses in major cities across Russia went up, some sought to leave the country, with plane tickets to popular destinations like Turkey, Armenia and Georgia skyrocketing in price or being completely sold out. Many others stayed indifferent, while videos of Russian civilians in Rostov and other cities showing support for Wagner forces also emerged.
On the political front, the response from Moscow varied, with Putin remaining silent on the issue since his Saturday address while some Russian lawmakers called for Prigozhin’s execution.
For now, the rest of the world watches on intently to see the Kremlin’s next move in the fresh aftermath of a failed mutiny. For countries like Ukraine and Armenia, whose security is intertwined with the political situation in Russia, the stakes remain particularly high.
