Just last month, the Azerbaijani Ambassador to Brussels tweeted what many perceived as a death threat against EU monitors and officials in Armenia, stating that if they were to come too close to the border, they’d be greeted with sniper fire. Today, the ambassador’s threat has come true.
The initial report out of the Armenian Ministry of Defense at 3 PM on August 15 alleged that the EU monitoring mission in Armenia came under fire by Azerbaijan. This is in keeping with what has been numerous ceasefire violations from the Azerbaijani side. It came as no surprise to Armenians, but the fact that it involved EU monitors was an escalation. The head of the EU mission has stated in the past that it coordinates all its movements with Azerbaijan to avoid any accidental shootouts, so there is no reason to believe Azerbaijan did not know the monitors were in the line of fire.
However, the situation took on a dimension of confusion when the EU Mission tweeted a denial of the Ministry of Defense’s claim, not just by saying they weren’t shot at, but photoshopping a large FALSE stamp over the initial claim. Azerbaijani accounts immediately incorporated the EU Mission’s tweet into their propaganda, calling Armenians liars.
As the shockwaves from the EU Mission’s denial were still ricocheting around social media, the other shoe dropped. A leaked video surfaced on Telegram depicting an EU monitor hiding in a bunker. In the video, the monitor shows where shots came from and says they are waiting for more information before they go back to their cars. The video directly countered the claim that the shooting did not happen.
In light of the video showing that it had indeed come under fire, the EU Mission deleted its initial tweet of denial and confirmed that it in fact had been “present to the shooting incident in our area of responsibility”. This non-denial is worded strangely, giving the impression that the EU Mission knows what happened but is remiss in calling Azerbaijan out for it.
This leaves things up in the air. The EU Monitoring Mission plays a vital role in an area Azerbaijan has attacked numerous times in the past two years and threatened to annex. It might be one of the few things preventing a full-scale escalation. However, EU’s timidity in commenting on ceasefire violations and its coordination with Azerbaijan has already caused suspicion by some Armenians, and now the mission’s blunder in wrongfully calling the Armenian Ministry of Defense a liar will cost EU even more credibility. Yet forcing the EU Mission out of the region is the very reason why Azerbaijan has been shooting at it, attempting to make its ability to operate untenable. After all, it is a civilian operation with no weapons, and so is no match for the overzealous Azerbaijani military.
The EU Monitoring Mission now faces many questions, such as who made the denial tweet and why. Member of the European Parliament Nathalie Loiseau commented on whether there is a lack of will on the part of Europe to hold Azerbaijan accountable for its actions, even when it itself is being shot at. Many will point to the infamous EU gas deal as a potential reason, along with a desire to remain a party to negotiations while Azerbaijan threatens to cut off any party which upsets them.
What also is in danger of being lost in all this confusion is the fact that Azerbaijan is in fact shooting not just at Armenia but the EU as well, the seriousness of the humanitarian situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, and tomorrow’s UN discussion of it. It’s easy for the big picture to get lost.
