By Karen Hartuyunyan, editor-in-chief
Tuesday’s combat deaths in Armenia’s southern Syunik region show that developments around Armenia are becoming extremely dangerous. After Ilham Aliyev’s re-election as president this month, Azerbaijan is preparing the ground for a new attack. Baku followed the same playbook at the start of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, before its attack against Artsakh last September, and prior to other attacks throughout that period.
Azerbaijan will try to tear away new territories and strategic heights from Armenia and eventually get a corridor to the Nakhichevan exclave. Azerbaijan may get the green light from Moscow for such an attack, if it has not already done so.
Undoubtedly, global and regional developments continue to unfold unfavorably for Armenia. These problems are further complicated by the incompetence of the Armenian government and the political elite in general. The Armenian government’s fatal mistake is disregarding regional powers’ possible retaliation and putting too much trust in the West.
The United States is perhaps the only power today that has to a certain extent restrained Azerbaijan’s aggression toward Armenia. (Notably, both the US and the EU were unable or unwilling to prevent Azerbaijan’s attack on Artsakh last September, despite high-level warnings.) However, the South Caucasus is not a priority for the United States. Moreover, the presidential campaign in the United States and the possible re-election of Donald Trump can distract Washington from overseas affairs. Even the continuation of Washington’s current, direct involvement, which is at its most active since the 2001 Key West negotiations, does not guarantee that Azerbaijan will not attack.
The European Union also cannot curb Azerbaijan, despite its active mediation efforts in the previous two years, its deployment of observers to the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, and its deepening political cooperation with Armenia. It is all about realpolitik, and we, as a state, cannot blame anyone else.
Nonetheless, Armenia should continue to work with both the United States and Europe to ensure their maximum support and pressure on Azerbaijan.
Armenia does not have the ability to influence global processes, but it does have its own agency to make use of and to prevent the loss of more pieces of territory.
Armenia’s government, first of all, should not seek out a scapegoat for any future failures in an effort to avoid its own responsibility. This is something it did repeatedly in the previous four years.
Armenia’s number one priority should be security and strengthening the army. Though the current government is inclined toward peace and is ready even to revisit the foundations of the country’s statehood to this end, peace will not come as long as Azerbaijan feels that it can impose new concessions on Armenia by force.
All major government projects must be considered from a national security perspective. If a project needs to be postponed or canceled, there should be no need to shy away from doing so.
Extreme geopolitical caution is necessary. In this post-unipolar world, and especially in our region, regional powers are more independent in their decision making than ever before.
Yerevan must find a way to restore contacts and a minimal level of trust with Moscow, no matter how difficult it is in the current situation. The issue of arresting Russian President Vladimir Putin should not be on the agenda, even theoretically, especially since even discussing that could cause new troubles for the country. Although Armenians have many reasons to be upset with Russia and our desire to distance ourselves from Russia is understandable, Armenia should refrain from making new anti-Russian gestures. Emotions don’t matter in politics. Only cold-hearted calculations matter.
Iran is the only regional power that opposes Azerbaijan’s demands for an extraterritorial corridor through Armenia. Moreover, Tehran wants to establish a military presence in Syunik, which would be extremely problematic. In addition, Tehran is allegedly blocking the transfer of Indian weapons to Armenia through its territory. We need very active diplomacy with Tehran on these issues and many others.
It is necessary to continue diversifying our arms dealers, but without making the issue of new weapons purchases a matter of political PR.
The search for new security partners should also be without making a show out of it. Developing defense relations with France and importing European-made weapons are important. However, one should not exaggerate their significance in terms of restoring the military balance with Azerbaijan, which will require persistent efforts and investments for many years.
Yerevan should deepen its relations with China, the world’s second superpower. China can play a pivotal role in increasing Armenia’s security with technology. Armenia should avoid taking careless steps in sensitive issues for China, which has happened in recent years. These include: Armenia’s membership in the International Religious Freedom or Belief Alliance, which regularly makes anti-Chinese statements; the unofficial visit of Taiwan’s economy minister to Armenia in 2019; and Armenia’s relatively low-level participation in China’s Belt and Road Summits.
(See the Luys Foundation’s report “China’s “Belt and Road” project and Armenia։ A missed opportunity or a geopolitical choice?”).
Armenia’s leadership seems to have shifted its geopolitical vector toward the international liberal order. Liberal values and democracy, however, must first of all be a matter of the domestic agenda, no matter how difficult it is in our region. It is necessary to refrain from becoming a focal point of a geopolitical short circuit.
In the domestic political arena, Armenia’s leadership should form a government of national unity and/or go to early elections. The current government cannot lead the country with the mandate it received in 2021 and with its endless failures.
The political elites and the opposition should also level down their populism and must self-refine. The dialectical interdependence of Armenia’s authorities and opposition must be changed. People who are not indifferent to the fate of the country must present a political bid, consolidate the public anger, and lead.
Armenia’s statehood is facing an existential threat. I could bring up a long list of the current government’s failures, which have brought the country to this point. But it is useless now.
Currently, Armenian society must accept the existence of a deep crisis and do its best to overcome it. Otherwise it will be too late, as it was in the case of Artsakh.
Read the article in Armenian.
