Op-ed by Vartan Oskanian, Armenia’s former foreign minister (1998-2008)
The geopolitical landscape of any nation is in constant flux, shaped by internal dynamics and external pressures. For Armenia, the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023 has necessitated a profound reassessment of its national interests. Armenia’s national interests have long been intertwined with the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region with a predominantly ethnic Armenian population that declared independence from Azerbaijan in the early 1990s. The recent conflict, culminating in the loss of this territory, has forced Armenia to confront new realities. This loss not only has territorial implications but also affects national identity, regional influence, and security paradigms.
Armenia must engage in a national discourse to redefine its national interests and the paths it has to pursue them. It is essential to understand that international politics is a process where national interests are adjusted, but not necessarily compromised. The concept of national interests presupposes neither a naturally harmonious, peaceful world nor the inevitability of war as a consequence of all nations pursuing their individual interests. On the contrary, it assumes the continuous adjustment of conflicting interests through diplomatic action.
Thus, Armenia must redefine and adjust its national interests by striking the right balance between the new realities on the ground and around it without conceding its fundamental rights, altering the sources of its identity, or weakening the pillars of its statehood.
In redefining its national interests, Armenia must first prioritize its security and sovereignty. The immediate aftermath of the conflict has underscored the vulnerability of Armenia’s borders and the need for robust defense mechanisms. This must involve modernizing the military, fostering strategic alliances, and ensuring the country is better prepared to deter future threats. Armenia must also engage in comprehensive security sector reform, including steps to enhance intelligence capabilities and improve civilian oversight of defense institutions. Such measures will help create a resilient security framework that can adapt to evolving threats.
Diplomacy is a crucial tool in redefining national interests. Armenia must recalibrate its diplomatic strategies to build stronger alliances and diversify its partnerships. Historically reliant on Russia for security and economic support, Armenia should seek to balance this relationship by engaging more deeply with other regional powers, such as Iran and China, as well as with global players like the European Union and the United States.
A nation’s strength also lies in the resilience of its society. In redefining its national interests, Armenia must address the psychological and social impacts of the recent losses. Promoting national unity and a cohesive identity is essential for social stability. This involves acknowledging the loss and its implications, fostering inclusive dialogue, and promoting reconciliation within society. Educational reforms and cultural initiatives can play a significant role in this process. By emphasizing civic education and national history, Armenia can cultivate a sense of shared purpose and resilience among its citizens.
There are three key issues that Armenia needs to address in this process of reassessing its national interests. In doing so, Armenia must tread a very fine line by reaffirming the historical realities of these issues while committing solely to tactful and peaceful engagement in addressing them.
Genocide Recognition
In 1915, the Ottoman Empire committed genocide against the Armenian people residing in its territories. This historical fact is recognized by a great number of genocide scholars and many countries worldwide, although Turkey continues to deny it.
The Armenian government should express hope that Turkey will eventually acknowledge this atrocity and accept the consequences. However, Armenia, as a sovereign state, will not make the recognition of the Armenian Genocide a precondition for normalizing relations with Turkey. The Armenian people harbor no animosity or grudge, and future generations in Armenia will be educated about this, based on facts, free from indoctrination with hate or a desire for revenge against the Turkish people.
Territorial Claims on Turkey
Historically, certain regions in eastern Turkey were part of Greater Armenia. Following World War I, these territories were recognized as falling under Armenia’s sovereignty in the 1920 Treaty of Sèvres. These are well-documented historical facts.
The Armenian government may express hope that one day geopolitical conditions will favor the peaceful return of these territories to Armenian sovereignty. However, just as no Armenian government has made any territorial claims on Turkey since independence in 1991, no current or future Armenian government will pursue territorial claims on Turkey.
The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
Nagorno-Karabakh has never been part of an independent Azerbaijan and has maintained a distinct identity, with a deep-rooted connection to the land, for centuries. During the 1918-1920 period, when Armenia and Azerbaijan were independent republics, Nagorno-Karabakh was a disputed territory. Under Soviet rule, it was designated as the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast and had maintained an effective, democratic, and legitimate government since the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
After 25 years of internationally mediated peaceful talks anchored on the principles of non-use of force, territorial integrity, and self-determination, Azerbaijan launched a surprise military attack on Nagorno-Karabakh on September 27, 2020, violating the fundamental principle of the non-use of force. Throughout 2023, Nagorno-Karabakh faced severe blockades, violence, obstruction of humanitarian aid, and military aggression from Azerbaijan, further violating the November 9, 2020 ceasefire declaration. On September 19, 2023, after enduring nearly 10 months of blockade that caused mass starvation, deprivation, illness, and death, and facing imminent destruction, the entire Armenian population fled their homeland amid evident threats of ethnic cleansing and genocide. These are undeniable facts.
The Armenian government must clearly state that the Nagorno Karabakh conflict remains unresolved as long as the people of Nagorno-Karabakh remain displaced and are not allowed to return to their homes. While Armenia will not resort to force to challenge or change the current status quo, it firmly believes that a just and lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan can only be achieved through resolving the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians’ return and the restoration of their fundamental rights.
Epilogue
Redefining national interests in the wake of geopolitical shifts is a complex but necessary task. For Armenia, the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh presents both a profound challenge and an opportunity for strategic renewal. By focusing on security and sovereignty, recalibrating diplomatic efforts, revitalizing the economy, and fostering societal resilience, Armenia can navigate this transitional period and emerge stronger.
Excellent article .