By Tigran Grigoryan
Since launching Democracy Watch with CivilNet last spring, we have mainly focused on Armenia’s domestic challenges and alarming trends. Yet, as academic literature on democratic transitions and consolidation makes clear, a conducive international environment is another critical factor shaping these processes.
During the third wave of democratization, the prospect of integration with the European Economic Community—and later the European Union—provided a powerful incentive for countries undergoing political transitions. Following the collapse of the Soviet bloc, democracy briefly emerged as the only game in town, with no viable political or ideological alternatives.
However, the optimism of the so-called “End of History” was short-lived. The weakening of Western influence and the rise of authoritarian and hybrid regimes have ushered in a new era. Last year, Freedom House reported a decline in democracy for the 20th consecutive year in its Nations in Transit report. Furthermore, with the Trump presidency and the rise of right-wing populism across Europe, we are witnessing a profound shift: the foundational principles of liberal democracy are now under attack in the West itself.
This erosion is not merely reflected in global indices or rankings but also concrete actions and pervasive rhetoric. Advocating for democratic norms in Armenia—such as building strong institutions, combating corruption, separating politics from business, and fostering tolerance for political opponents—becomes increasingly difficult when:
- Unelected tech billionaires wield outsized influence in U.S. policymaking;
- An outgoing president pardons his son while the incumbent president runs the country like a family enterprise; and
- Offensive, divisive rhetoric has become mainstream in political discourse.
These global anti-democratic trends have also penetrated our region. Georgia, once regarded as a beacon of reform and democratization, is undergoing a troubling authoritarian turn. Opposition leaders are attacked on the streets, and independent journalists face prosecution. This reflects a broader phenomenon of authoritarian diffusion and learning that is shaping the political landscape.
In such an environment, safeguarding Armenia’s democratic trajectory becomes an increasingly challenging task. With the foundations of democracy weakening in the West and democratic governance deteriorating in the region, Armenia’s ruling elites may be tempted to adopt their own selective interpretation of democracy. The persistent belief in some Armenian circles that the ruling party and its leadership, though perhaps incompetent, are fundamentally pro-democracy, is debatable. The troubling trends since the end of the Second Karabakh War—such as overturning multiple local election results through abuse of administrative power and law enforcement or consolidating control over nearly all independent institutions—clearly contradict democratic principles.
The risks are real, and Armenia’s democratic success must not be taken for granted. To prevent a backslide, supporting genuinely independent civil society actors and media organizations is vital. These sectors face mounting pressures that demand scrutiny and robust advocacy in the months ahead.
Democracy Watch is a joint initiative of CivilNet and the Regional Center for Democracy and Security.
