By Alexander Pracht
After a nine-month vacancy, China has appointed a new ambassador to Armenia, Li Xinwei, who formally presented his credentials to the Armenian government on Monday, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to revitalizing political dialogue and enhancing cooperation across various sectors. The appointment raises expectations for a new chapter in bilateral ties, which in recent years have seen limited engagement, lagging behind the more dynamic partnerships China has developed with neighboring Georgia and Azerbaijan.
Armenia-China relations remain far from their peak, according to Benyamin Poghosyan, Senior Research Fellow at APRI Armenia. “The last time leaders of the two countries met was in 2019, even before the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh,” he noted. Poghosyan emphasized that while China views the South Caucasus primarily as a transit route for exports to Europe, particularly through the much-discussed Trans-Caspian corridor, Armenia has not yet positioned itself as a key player in that framework.
Poghosyan explained that China’s primary interest in the region is maintaining stability to ensure the uninterrupted flow of goods along these transport routes. “China does not want another big war in the region,” he said, warning that a new Azerbaijani offensive in southern Armenia could last for weeks or months.
While he acknowledged that such a scenario would not be too critical for Beijing given the geographic distance, it would nevertheless harm China’s strategic interests in secure and diversified trade routes to Europe. Armenia, he added, should stress in its communication with Beijing that renewed conflict could drag in regional powers like Turkey and Iran, further damaging China’s long-term economic goals.
On the delayed ambassadorial appointment, Poghosyan downplayed suggestions that China may have been signaling displeasure. “Not having an ambassador for nine months is a little longer than usual,” he said. “But I’m not in a position to argue that China was trying to send a message to the Armenian government. It could have been a procedural issue.” He noted that China’s chargé d’affaires and military attaché remained active during this time, meaning the absence of a formal ambassador likely had little effect on the day-to-day relations between the two countries.
Unlike in Georgia and Azerbaijan, where China has made regionally significant investments, its economic footprint in Armenia remains modest. “There are no large-scale Chinese investments in Armenia,” Poghosyan said. “China-Armenia relations are more about soft power at this stage, projects like donating buses and ambulances, or opening a Chinese-language school.”
While Armenia does export copper to China and imports electric vehicles and other goods in return, with a total trade turnover of just over $2 billion last year, Poghosyan emphasized that these exchanges fall short of the investment scale seen in neighboring states.
Recent reports about a potential breakthrough in Armenia-China economic ties stirred brief excitement, but were quickly muddled by conflicting messages. Turkey’s pro-government Turkiye Gazetesi quoted China’s chargé d’affaires in Yerevan, Cheng Ming, as saying that Armenia and China were preparing to sign a transport route agreement.
However, the Chinese Embassy in Armenia issued a statement last week denying Ming’s interview. Commenting on the matter, Benyamin Poghosyan said that if such a deal is indeed in the works, it could mark a turning point in bilateral relations. “If it is signed, it will be the first major economic agreement between the nations,” he noted, adding that the agreement could carry significant weight given China’s broader transport and trade ambitions in the region.
Although China’s strategic interests in Armenia remain limited, the country has a clear stake in preserving regional stability. Earlier this month, Azerbaijani media claimed that Chinese representatives had expressed support for a transport corridor connecting mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhichevan exclave and onward to Turkey, cutting through Armenia’s southern Syunik region without Armenian control and in violation of its territorial integrity. The project, promoted by the Azerbaijani government as the “Zangezur Corridor,” has been widely criticized in Yerevan.
However, in a separate interview with Armenia’s state news agency Armenpress, China’s chargé d’affaires Cheng Ming offered reassurance, stating: “Naturally, China supports the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Armenia. Armenia and Azerbaijan are both friendly countries for China, and we advocate for resolving disputes through political dialogue and diplomatic channels. The Belt and Road Initiative, which we also promote in the South Caucasus, is crucial for peace and development in the region.”
As China deepens its ties with Azerbaijan, signing a major investment deal and strategic partnership just last week, Armenia faces the challenge of not being left behind. “The changing world order puts countries like China and India at the forefront of the non-Western world,” said Poghosyan. “In this regard, Armenia must think carefully and seek to sign at least some sort of declaration with China.” Whether through a transport agreement or broader diplomatic engagement, Armenia’s next moves could determine whether it becomes a meaningful partner in Beijing’s evolving South Caucasus strategy or remains on the periphery.
