By Alexander Pracht
Russia and Armenia could lose around $6 billion in mutual trade turnover by the end of 2025, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk warned on Friday, speaking at the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg. Overchuk said the decline reflects an ongoing sharp drop in economic ties between the two countries.
“By the most conservative estimates, we lost about $2 billion last year. This year, the drop so far is $3 billion. Clearly, we are looking at a total loss of about $6 billion by the end of the year. These are serious figures,” Overchuk said.
In March, Russia reported a trade turnover of $12 billion with Armenia for 2024.
Speaking at the forum, Overchuk described Armenia’s growing ties with the European Union as a key factor behind the decline in trade. He said that “there’s an elephant in the room: Armenia’s government recently adopted a law on Armenia joining the EU,” and stressed that Moscow takes such legislative moves “very seriously.” The law, however, is non-binding, and Armenia has not taken any steps to apply for EU membership.
According to Overchuk, businesses are quick to respond to these developments, which is why mutual trade continues to fall. He argued that Armenia’s pro-European course complicates relations with Russia, adding that while Moscow would respect the choice of the Armenian people, it remains committed to protecting its own market. He also warned that if Armenia were to join the EU, Brussels could demand the scrapping of flights between Armenia and Russia, as there are currently no direct flights between Russia and EU countries.
Overchuk frequently comments on Armenian issues, as his portfolio in the Russian government includes oversight of Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) affairs, a Russian-led trade bloc of which Armenia joined in 2015. He has been one of the most vocal critics of Armenia’s potential European Union integration. In January, he said Moscow views the discussion in Armenia about joining the European Union as the beginning of the country’s exit from the EEU. “Russia will shape its economic policy toward Armenia accordingly,” he warned at the time.
The EEU offers an integrated market for its member states, aiming to facilitate trade, labor mobility, and economic cooperation. However, Armenia’s participation is complicated by the lack of a direct land connection to the rest of the union as its trade with Russia depends on transit through Georgian territory.
Despite repeated warnings from Russian officials about the risks of deepening ties with the European Union, Armenian leaders have consistently stated that they currently have no plans to leave the EEU.
