By Alexander Pracht
A total of 68.5% of Armenians do not believe normalization with Azerbaijan is possible, according to a survey by the Yerevan-based Arar Foundation published on Friday. The phone poll was conducted between May 8 and June 5 and included 1,071 respondents from both urban and rural areas of the country.
A roughly similar proportion, 62.8%, believe that the issue of Karabakh is not closed, and see a realistic prospect of peace only after it is fully resolved, despite Azerbaijan having gained full control over the region in September 2023 and driving virtually every ethnic Armenian from their homeland.
A huge 87.5% of respondents agreed that the loss of Karabakh is only temporary, replying positively to the statement: “The loss of Artsakh is temporary, we must strengthen our army and bring back what was lost.” Although this could suggest a high level of revanchism in Armenia, the phrasing of the question appears highly suggestive and appeals to jingoistic feelings.
By contrast, in a similar survey by Caucasus Barometer conducted between July 27 and October 10 last year, only 1.5% of respondents, when answering a free-form question, mentioned a victorious war for Armenia as a potential option that could bring about peace. In the same poll, 44% of respondents mentioned lack of peace as Armenia’s most pressing issue, up from only 7% in 2019.
Interestingly, the share of people who believe Artsakh is irretrievably lost, around 34%, has dropped back to the levels seen in December 2023, just after the ethnic cleansing. The highest level of resignation was seen last July, when 47.4% of respondents agreed with this view. However, the proportion of people who believe that Karabakh refugees could return to their homes and agree to live under Azerbaijani rule, given that they are provided autonomy, has almost doubled since late 2023, from 10.8% then to 23.7% now.
As far as the discussion on returning to Karabakh goes, Tigran Grigoryan, Director of the Regional Center for Democracy and Security, a Yerevan-based think tank, believes that for Azerbaijan, “the status quo of Nagorno-Karabakh as a territory without people is the most optimal outcome.” In his op-ed for CivilNet, Grigoryan noted that Baku had fully “digested the Armenian exodus from Artsakh” and suffered no repercussions after September 2023: “There were no consequences for Azerbaijan. Not a single Azerbaijani official was sanctioned after those events.”
According to Grigoryan, the optimism of international actors who hoped that after “closing the chapter” of the Karabakh conflict, Armenia and Azerbaijan would finally conclude a peace treaty does not reflect global trends.
“International law and norms are losing their force. The use of force is being legitimized by the most influential actor in the international system, and regional players are becoming more capable,” Grigoryan said, referring to the US foreign policy under the new Trump administration. “There is simply no player who can force Azerbaijan to provide conditions for the return of Artsakh refugees.”
The only thing this constant talk of a possible return to Artsakh, often presented by the opposition as a realistic prospect, has produced is, unfortunately, false expectations and false hope for thousands of Karabakh Armenians. Not only does it advance populist narratives at the expense of refugees’ suffering, but it also, as Grigoryan believes, complicates their integration in Armenia.
“The bitter truth is that there is no possibility of return, at least in the foreseeable future,” he concluded, “and we must have the courage to speak about it directly.”
Our reality laid bare, and a sober analysis from baron Grigoryan.
The Azeris waited 30 years to implement their plans. Like them, Armenians must now practise patience, strategy, and full commitment to the Armenian cause, at the very least to prevent yet more loss of the homeland, but to give the next generation of Armenians a fighting chance at settling the score.