Richard Giragosian: Armenia's Strategic Pivot: Why the EU Matters More than the US

Richard Giragosian, political expert and founding director of the Yerevan-based Regional Studies Center, delivers an insightful lecture on "Western Engagement in the South Caucasus" at the 2025 Monterey Summer Symposium on Russia. The presentation took place on June 30, 2025, in Yerevan, as part of the symposium organized by the Monterey Initiative in Russian Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. The symposium ran from June 25 to July 13, 2025, in Batumi, Yerevan, and Tbilisi.

Key points from the lecture:

Giragosian analyzes the transformed nature of Western engagement, arguing that the European Union now plays a more crucial role than the United States in the South Caucasus. He characterizes the Trump administration's approach as transactional and unpredictable, driven by "America First" ideology and an attraction to authoritarian leaders. This shift means the EU must shoulder greater responsibility in regions like Ukraine and the South Caucasus, as the U.S. approach has become more volatile and potentially accommodating to Russian sphere-of-influence claims.

The expert highlights Armenia's unique position in the region, possessing what he calls "demonstrable democratic credentials" and the "rare commodity of legitimacy" following two consecutive free and fair elections. Unlike its neighbors—Georgia, which is turning away from European ideals, and Azerbaijan, which resembles a Central Asian dynastic state—Armenia has established a new social contract with its people. However, Giragosian warns that Armenia faces increasing isolation if Georgia continues its trajectory away from Western alignment.Regarding Armenia's EU aspirations, Giragosian presents a nuanced analysis, describing the government's talk of EU membership as an "effective strategic bluff" rather than a realistic near-term goal. He notes the fundamental contradiction with Armenia's membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, but argues this strategy serves two purposes: consolidating pro-Western public opinion and providing leverage in future negotiations with Russia. Despite this skepticism, he acknowledges two unprecedented EU-Armenia achievements: the deployment of EU monitors in 2023 and €10 million in security assistance through the European Peace Facility.