By Emilio Luciano Cricchio
According to the Statistical Committee of Armenia, as of January 1, 2019, Armenia’s permanent population is at 2,965,300. This is a 550,000 drop from the early 1990s at the time of Armenian’s independence from the Soviet Union.
Despite a speculated reduction in emigration, the general population figures are still on the decline.
Analysts have pinned the figure on long term declines in the birth rates, as well as an increase in mortality rates.
According to the United Nations, Armenia’s birth rate has been declining relatively significantly.
In 2014, 43,183 births recorded, while in 2016 the number was at 40,592 and in 2018 at 36,502.
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This is further coupled by a steady death rate in the last few years, ranging from 26,000 to 28,000.
For a society not to experience a population decline, fertility rates should be around the 2.1 mark. However, according to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), Armenia’s fertility rate is at 1.57, the lowest in the region, with Georgia having a fertility rate of 1.76 and Azerbaijan at 2.1.
In August 2019, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan vowed to increase the population of Armenia to at least 5 million by 2050.
However, the UNFPA is less optimistic about this vision. Tsovinar Harutyunyan, a representative of UNFPA Armenia, responded to Pashinyan, saying, “We will (…) record a population decline to 2.816 million by 2050. Notabily, this is just a forecast.The vision which the government has presented is not based on the future.”
Armenia’s population since 1990 (data from Statiscal Committee of Armenia)
1990 – 3,514,900
1991 – 3,574,500
1992 – 3,633,300
1993 – 3,463,700
1994 – 3,356,700
1995 – 3,260,300
1996 – 3,248,800
1997 – 3,246,000
1998 – 3,238,200
1999 – 3,232,100
2000 – 3,226,900
2001 – 3,215,300
2002 – 3,208,300
2003 – 3,191,200
2004 – 3,173,800
2005 – 3,156,000
2006 – 3,136,800
2007 – 3,117,400
2008 – 3,097,300
2009 – 3,076,800
2010 – 3,055,200
2011 – 3,034,500
2012 – 3,021,400
2013 – 3,026,900
2014 – 3,017,100
2015 – 3,010,600
2016 – 2,998,600
2017 – 2,986,100
2018 – 2,972,700
2019 – 2,965,300