Is France on its way to becoming Armenia’s full-fledged ally? The answer could be yes, given this historic visit – the first by a defense minister of France, a NATO member country, to Armenia, officially a member of the CSTO. But the obstacles are still legion.
Sébastien Lecornu and his Armenian counterpart, Suren Papikyan, have a lot in common, and not just their young age (they are both 37). They also share similar professional backgrounds, having both headed regions in their respective countries, and both have a thorough understanding of regional planning issues.
On February 22, aircraft from the French Air Force landed at Yerevan’s Zvartnots International Airport in complete secrecy, with the Armenian media not present. On board were some 60 leading French parliamentarians, including Senator Bruno Retailleau, former ministers such as Nathalie Loiseau and Jean Michel Blanquer, journalists, intellectuals, and French personalities of Armenian origin. Representatives of French armaments companies (Arquus, MBDA, Nexter, PGM, Safran, and Thalès) were also present. Moreover, there were also a few tons of non-lethal military equipment, namely Safran night-vision binoculars․ In the near future France forecasts the delivery of radar systems manufactured by Thalès which can detect enemy aircraft 250 kilometers away.
A fine delegation, but unfortunately not enough time to go beyond strict protocol and discover a few facets of Armenia.
With the threat of a new Azerbaijani military offensive looming on the horizon, whether in Tavush, Gegharkunik or Syunik, France represents a welcome lifeline in Armenia. And all that in the face of Russia’s failure to rescue Armenia, a humiliated ally unfortunate enough to stray from its sphere of influence in an effort to express its discontent.
In all, the ministers completed the signing of two agreements. The first contract concerns the purchase of precision rifles, and the second is an agreement with the French military academy of Saint-Cyr Coëtquidan to welcome five Armenian military personnel this year.
To date, France has delivered several types of equipment, including some 20 Bastion armored personnel carriers to equip the Armenian army. Taking into account Armenia’s mountainous terrain, France is committed to modernizing the Armenian army, training men, and delivering equipment for exclusively defensive use, with reinforcing ground-air defense against enemy drones a priority.
During his joint press conference with Papikyan, Lecornu never once uttered the word “alliance” or “Azerbaijan,” taking care not to unnecessarily provoke an adversary eager to fight at even the slightest pretext. An adjective that few journalists will have noticed is Lecornu’s use of the word “reliable” when describing the role of the French partnership, as if he intended to wink at Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, who once described Azerbaijani dictator Ilham Aliyev as a “reliable partner.”
Promises and obstacles
There was plenty of emotion in the ranks of the French delegation and politicians, some of whom appear even more committed to defending Armenia than the Armenians of France. That included a moment of emotion and solemnity at the Tsitsernakaberd memorial, dedicated to the memory of the victims of the 1915 genocide, in the hope that the next visit will be to the Yerablur military cemetery.
The sight of 17 French servicemen standing at attention at the Baghramyan training camp in the Armavir region was even more moving. A first for a CSTO member country! These French soldiers from the 27th Mountain Infantry Brigade represent the first operational incarnation of French-Armenian bilateral cooperation. They are responsible for training some 30 Armenian soldiers from the special forces. Under the watchful eye of their French trainers, the Armenian soldiers took part in simulated firing exercises in the high mountains.
While the French-Armenian brotherhood of arms brings comfort and hope to Yerevan, we must be clear-sighted enough to face up to the obstacles.
These are of various kinds. Logistics first. As a landlocked country, Armenia is seriously handicapped by this geographical constraint, which makes it more vulnerable to the whims of both Georgia, through which French equipment would transit, and Iran, through which Armenia can import military equipment from India. Secondly, financially, arms contracts are not yet on the agenda with French weapons manufacturers, which are still only at the stage of studying the Armenian army’s needs, while being aware of the relative modesty of Armenia’s annual defense budget ($1.38 billion or nearly 5% of the country’s GDP). That is a far cry from the security cooperation agreement signed between Paris and Kyiv on February 16, which was concluded without consulting the French Parliament.
Finally, from a geopolitical point of view, however committed it may be, France alone cannot constitute an alternative to Russia’s (failing) protection. In the long term, it could become part of a new security architecture linking Yerevan to New Delhi, also a strategic partner of Paris. That remains a distant prospect, however, with no answer to the urgent challenges facing Armenia.
Perhaps even more serious is the worrying state of the Armenian army and its general staff, still strongly influenced by the Soviet era, and whose relations with the civilian authorities are atrocious.
The French are fully aware of this, which is why it is imperative to reform, strengthen cooperation in training, and work toward a new military doctrine. But all this requires time that Armenia probably does not have. New structures (intelligence and counterintelligence) are lacking. France cannot act entirely alone, as its army suffers from a shortage of ammunition, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine is weakening its positions. But it can reinforce its military mission, hosted by the French embassy, through the political will of President Emmanuel Macron and not through pressure from French-Armenian protagonists. It can also use its diplomatic leverage at the United Nations and within the European Union to put pressure on Azerbaijan. With this in mind, the support of a few French lawmakers in the European Parliament will be invaluable in winning the hearts of countries reluctant to sanction Azerbaijan, such as Italy, a major consumer of Caspian gas. So why get angry with Russia without a satisfactory deterrent? Is it really prudent for Armenia to invite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, or for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to announce the freezing of participation in the CSTO on the France 24 television channel? Perhaps a cautious silence would have been preferable. To show one’s discontent without having the means to respond to the disastrous consequences is irresponsible.
Walking a tightrope with no means of deterrence, Armenia’s leaders are putting at risk the very survival of the only state left to the Armenian nation since the political and demographic disappearance of Artsakh. Getting angry with Russia may be a way of obtaining a few pledges from the West, but it is above all a gift to Azerbaijan, which is just waiting for the opportunity to complete its annexationist project.
Pinning our hopes on others and expecting the west to sent their soldiers to fight for us has been an ongoing theme in the Armenian psyche since the independence. You can not make the same mistake over and over and expect a different result. We failed to educate leaders who could read the geopolitics of the day and establish meaningful relationships with all sides. Instead, we have a generation who has lived of of the stipends sent by family members from all over the world who prefer frequenting the numerous bars and restaurants in Yerevan waiting for their chance to leave and become another Uber driver in Los Angeles. Lack of vision and a coherent message has brought us to this critical junction. We value our culture more than statehood so probably it is no surprise that we are in this predicament.